SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 67.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 10.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.45%) and 3-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.56%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Egypt in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Egypt.
| Result | ||
| Egypt | Draw | Malawi |
67.71% ( -0.56) | 21.61% ( 0.33) | 10.68% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 35.27% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.65% ( -0.59) | 58.34% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.04% ( -0.47) | 78.96% ( 0.47) |
| Egypt Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.44% ( -0.39) | 16.56% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.66% ( -0.71) | 46.34% ( 0.71) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.27% ( 0.09) | 57.72% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.55% ( 0.05) | 89.44% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Egypt | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 17.18% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 15.45% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.16)2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.09% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.87% Total : 67.7% | 0-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.21) 1-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 2.33% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.61% | 0-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.39% Total : 10.68% |
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