SM
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| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mauritania | Draw | Mali |
30.83% ( 0.06) | 27.74% ( -0.04) | 41.43% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.58% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.93% ( 0.16) | 58.07% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.26% ( 0.12) | 78.74% ( -0.12) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.71% ( 0.13) | 34.29% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.01% ( 0.14) | 70.99% ( -0.14) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.41% ( 0.06) | 27.59% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.88% ( 0.08) | 63.12% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mauritania | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.28% Total : 30.82% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.46% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.73% | 0-1 @ 12.18% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.84% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.37% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 1.86% Total : 41.43% |
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