SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 66.61%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 11.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.94%) and 3-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Mauritania |
66.61% ( -0.18) | 21.92% ( 0.11) | 11.47% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 36.73% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.24% ( -0.21) | 57.76% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.5% ( -0.16) | 78.5% ( 0.17) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.27% ( -0.13) | 16.73% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.35% ( -0.24) | 46.65% ( 0.25) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.12% ( 0.01) | 55.89% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.6% ( 0) | 88.4% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Mauritania |
| 1-0 @ 16.71% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 14.94% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.94% Total : 66.6% | 1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 2.53% ( -0)Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.92% | 0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.62% Total : 11.47% |
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