SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 38.54%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mauritania | Draw | Cape Verde |
32.88% ( 0.26) | 28.57% ( 0.11) | 38.54% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 45.81% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.44% ( -0.36) | 60.55% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.34% ( -0.27) | 80.66% ( 0.27) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.87% ( -0.01) | 34.12% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.19% ( -0.01) | 70.81% |
| Cape Verde Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.54% ( -0.41) | 30.45% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.34% ( -0.48) | 66.66% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mauritania | Draw | Cape Verde |
| 1-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 2.56% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.33% Total : 32.88% | 1-1 @ 13.28% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.56% | 0-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.29% Total : 38.53% |
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