SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 57.59%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Rwanda had a probability of 16.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.04%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.7%), while for a Rwanda win it was 0-1 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nigeria | Draw | Rwanda |
57.59% ( -0.02) | 26.19% ( 0.01) | 16.22% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 37.15% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.26% ( -0.03) | 63.74% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17% ( -0.02) | 83% ( 0.02) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.53% ( -0.02) | 22.47% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.98% ( -0.03) | 56.02% ( 0.03) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.91% ( -0.01) | 52.09% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.94% ( -0.01) | 86.06% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nigeria | Draw | Rwanda |
| 1-0 @ 17.47% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 13.04% 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.49% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.24% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.42% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 57.58% | 0-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.01) 1-1 @ 11.39% 2-2 @ 2.78% ( -0)Other @ 0.32% Total : 26.18% | 0-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.72% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.49% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 16.22% |
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