SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Malawi win was 1-0 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kenya would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Kenya |
29.87% ( -0.01) | 26.26% ( -0.04) | 43.87% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.55% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.21% ( 0.14) | 52.79% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.59% ( 0.12) | 74.42% ( -0.12) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.77% ( 0.06) | 32.24% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.27% ( 0.07) | 68.73% ( -0.07) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.07% ( 0.08) | 23.93% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.86% ( 0.12) | 58.14% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Kenya |
| 1-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.87% ( -0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 29.87% | 1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.25% | 0-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.89% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.26% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 43.87% |
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