SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 17.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.4%) and 1-2 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a South Sudan win it was 1-0 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gambia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| South Sudan | Draw | Gambia |
17.51% ( 0.01) | 26.14% ( 0.01) | 56.35% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 39.32% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.89% ( -0.03) | 62.11% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.18% ( -0.02) | 81.82% ( 0.02) |
| South Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.6% ( -0) | 49.4% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.76% | 84.23% ( -0) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.7% ( -0.03) | 22.3% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.24% ( -0.03) | 55.75% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| South Sudan | Draw | Gambia |
| 1-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.11% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.74% ( 0)3-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.92% Total : 17.51% | 1-1 @ 11.65% 0-0 @ 11.01% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.39% Total : 26.13% | 0-1 @ 16.52% 0-2 @ 12.4% 1-2 @ 8.75% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.33% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.54% ( -0)Other @ 2.57% Total : 56.33% |
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