SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Uganda win was 1-0 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uganda | Draw | South Africa |
28.24% ( 0.08) | 27.84% ( 0.04) | 43.92% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 46.1% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.65% ( -0.1) | 59.35% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.26% ( -0.08) | 79.74% ( 0.08) |
| Uganda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.03% ( 0.01) | 36.97% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.24% ( 0.01) | 73.76% ( -0.01) |
| South Africa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.14% ( -0.11) | 26.86% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.83% ( -0.15) | 62.17% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uganda | Draw | South Africa |
| 1-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.14% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 1.8% Total : 28.24% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.93% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.83% | 0-1 @ 13.05% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.58% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 43.91% |
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