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UN
Uganda national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 1pm UK
Stade de la Reunification
SA
South Africa national football team

Uganda
0 - 2
South Africa


Lwanga (42')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Morena (49'), Maswanganyi (89')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Sudan 1-2 Uganda
Tuesday, October 15 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 1-1 South Africa
Tuesday, October 15 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Uganda 1-1 South Africa

While South Africa have the better team on paper, they are missing several key players for this month's matches, particularly in the attacking areas, and we feel that Uganda will be able to get something from this match and secure their qualification in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Uganda win was 1-0 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.

Result
UgandaDrawSouth Africa
28.24% (0.082000000000001 0.08) 27.84% (0.039999999999999 0.04) 43.92% (-0.123 -0.12)
Both teams to score 46.1% (-0.062999999999995 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.65% (-0.102 -0.1)59.35% (0.103 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.26% (-0.078999999999997 -0.08)79.74% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Uganda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.03% (0.009999999999998 0.01)36.97% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.24% (0.012 0.01)73.76% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
South Africa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.14% (-0.11099999999999 -0.11)26.86% (0.113 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.83% (-0.147 -0.15)62.17% (0.148 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Uganda 28.24%
    South Africa 43.91%
    Draw 27.83%
UgandaDrawSouth Africa
1-0 @ 9.88% (0.041 0.04)
2-1 @ 6.46% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.92% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.14% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 1.63% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.41% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 28.24%
1-1 @ 12.98% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.93% (0.039 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.25% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 27.83%
0-1 @ 13.05% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.58% (-0.020999999999999 -0.02)
1-2 @ 8.54% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.76% (-0.021 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.86% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.24% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.23% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 43.91%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: South Sudan 1-2 Uganda
Tuesday, October 15 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Uganda 1-0 South Sudan
Friday, October 11 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Uganda 2-0 Congo
Monday, September 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Africa 2-2 Uganda
Friday, September 6 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Uganda 1-2 Algeria
Monday, June 10 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Uganda 1-0 Botswana
Friday, June 7 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Congo 1-1 South Africa
Tuesday, October 15 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Africa 5-0 Congo
Friday, October 11 at 6pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Sudan 2-3 South Africa
Tuesday, September 10 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Africa 2-2 Uganda
Friday, September 6 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Africa 1-0 Eswatini
Tuesday, July 2 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Botswana
Saturday, June 29 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup


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