SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Angola | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Cameroon | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Congo had a probability of 13.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.26%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.13%), while for a Congo win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| South Africa | Draw | Congo |
61.92% ( -0.3) | 24.53% ( 0.14) | 13.55% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 35.76% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.59% ( -0.17) | 62.41% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.96% ( -0.12) | 82.03% ( 0.12) |
| South Africa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.82% ( -0.18) | 20.17% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.53% ( -0.29) | 52.47% ( 0.29) |
| Congo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.8% ( 0.16) | 55.2% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12% ( 0.09) | 88% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| South Africa | Draw | Congo |
| 1-0 @ 17.82% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 14.26% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 8.48% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.34% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.04% Total : 61.91% | 0-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.07) 1-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.28% Total : 24.52% | 0-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.81% Total : 13.55% |
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