South Africa have improved noticeably in the last 12 to 18 months, particularly in defence, as we saw in the Ivory Coast at the start of the year when they kept five clean sheets in seven AFCON matches. We feel the hosts will edge this result while shutting out the Cranes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 57.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Uganda had a probability of 14.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 21.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.1%) and 2-1 (7.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.86%), while for a Uganda win it was 0-1 (8.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
