SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mauritania | Draw | Mali |
30.76% ( -0.25) | 27.81% ( -0.03) | 41.43% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 47.36% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.67% ( 0.02) | 58.33% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.05% ( 0.01) | 78.95% ( -0.01) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.52% ( -0.17) | 34.47% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.81% ( -0.19) | 71.19% ( 0.19) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.28% ( 0.16) | 27.71% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.72% ( 0.2) | 63.28% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mauritania | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 10.17% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.42% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.24% Total : 30.76% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.8% | 0-1 @ 12.26% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 7.87% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.84% Total : 41.43% |
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