SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.7%) and 2-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (12.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgrano | Draw | Boca Juniors |
38.03% ( -0.31) | 30.9% ( -0.06) | 31.07% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 39.45% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.93% ( 0.23) | 68.07% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.02% ( 0.15) | 85.98% ( -0.16) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.31% ( -0.07) | 34.69% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.58% ( -0.08) | 71.42% ( 0.07) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.4% ( 0.42) | 39.6% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.72% ( 0.39) | 76.28% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgrano | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 14.54% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.52% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.25% Total : 38.03% | 0-0 @ 13.73% ( -0.12) 1-1 @ 13.47% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.38% Total : 30.89% | 0-1 @ 12.72% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.45% Total : 31.07% |
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