SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 41.26%. A draw had a probability of 32% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 26.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.83%) and 2-1 (6.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.82%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Instituto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | San Lorenzo |
41.26% ( -0.27) | 31.99% ( 0.06) | 26.75% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 35.53% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 28.1% ( -0.08) | 71.9% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 11.57% ( -0.05) | 88.42% ( 0.05) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.22% ( -0.21) | 34.78% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.49% ( -0.22) | 71.51% ( 0.22) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.48% ( 0.14) | 45.51% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.66% ( 0.11) | 81.34% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | San Lorenzo |
| 1-0 @ 16.71% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 8.83% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.25% Total : 41.25% | 0-0 @ 15.82% ( 0.04) 1-1 @ 13.16% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 2.74% ( -0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 31.98% | 0-1 @ 12.45% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.56% Total : 26.74% |
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