SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 41.72%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Union had a probability of 28.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgrano | Draw | Union |
41.72% ( -0.35) | 29.65% ( -0.01) | 28.63% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 41.61% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.95% ( 0.14) | 65.05% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.07% ( 0.1) | 83.92% ( -0.1) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.15% ( -0.13) | 30.84% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.87% ( -0.15) | 67.12% ( 0.15) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.17% ( 0.37) | 39.83% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.5% ( 0.34) | 76.49% ( -0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgrano | Draw | Union |
| 1-0 @ 14.44% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.11)2-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.25% Total : 41.71% | 1-1 @ 13.3% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 12.28% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.46% Total : 29.64% | 0-1 @ 11.3% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 6.12% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.41% Total : 28.62% |
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