Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 38.42%. A draw had a probability of 32.8% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 28.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.07%) and 1-2 (6.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.72%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 1-0 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.17) 
