SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 33.33% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.26%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 (12.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Instituto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
36.63% ( -0.2) | 30.04% ( -0.04) | 33.33% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 41.95% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.72% ( 0.14) | 65.29% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.91% ( 0.09) | 84.09% ( -0.1) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.91% ( -0.06) | 34.09% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.22% ( -0.06) | 70.78% ( 0.06) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.65% ( 0.25) | 36.35% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.87% ( 0.25) | 73.14% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
| 1-0 @ 13.33% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 36.63% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.39% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.48% Total : 30.03% | 0-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.35% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 33.33% |
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