SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 34.94%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 31.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.92%) and 2-1 (6.69%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (13.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.
| Result | ||
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
34.94% ( 0.39) | 31.27% ( 0.06) | 33.79% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 38.91% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.12% ( -0.17) | 68.88% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.49% ( -0.11) | 86.51% ( 0.11) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.79% ( 0.18) | 37.21% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26% ( 0.18) | 74% ( -0.18) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.97% ( -0.41) | 38.03% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.2% ( -0.4) | 74.8% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 13.99% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.11)2-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 1.8% Total : 34.94% | 0-0 @ 14.15% ( 0.09) 1-1 @ 13.52% 2-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.36% Total : 31.27% | 0-1 @ 13.68% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.11)1-2 @ 6.54% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.68% Total : 33.78% |
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