SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 39.06%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.93%) and 2-1 (7.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.44%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Instituto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
39.06% ( 1.26) | 30.54% ( 0.22) | 30.4% ( -1.48) |
| Both teams to score 40.12% ( -0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.82% ( -0.89) | 67.18% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.61% ( -0.6) | 85.39% ( 0.61) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.45% ( 0.32) | 33.55% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.81% ( 0.34) | 70.19% ( -0.34) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.38% ( -1.64) | 39.62% ( 1.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.7% ( -1.56) | 76.3% ( 1.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 14.51% ( 0.59) 2-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.39)2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.49% Total : 39.06% | 1-1 @ 13.44% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 13.29% ( 0.43)2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.41% Total : 30.53% | 0-1 @ 12.3% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.31)0-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.33)1-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.45% Total : 30.39% |
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