SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 49.99%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 21.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Instituto |
49.99% ( -0.05) | 28.19% ( 0.04) | 21.82% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 40.1% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.72% ( -0.09) | 64.28% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.61% ( -0.06) | 83.39% ( 0.06) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.88% ( -0.06) | 26.12% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.82% ( -0.09) | 61.18% ( 0.09) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.28% ( -0.04) | 45.72% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.5% ( -0.03) | 81.5% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Instituto |
| 1-0 @ 16.03% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.76% 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.83% Total : 49.99% | 1-1 @ 12.54% 0-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.41% Total : 28.19% | 0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.91% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.66% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.28% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.67% Total : 21.82% |
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