SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 57.74%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 15.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.63%) and 2-1 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.38%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (7.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | San Lorenzo |
57.74% ( -0.12) | 27.09% ( 0.14) | 15.18% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 33.62% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.63% ( -0.39) | 67.37% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.49% ( -0.26) | 85.51% ( 0.26) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76% ( -0.22) | 24% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.75% ( -0.32) | 58.25% ( 0.32) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.23% ( -0.27) | 55.77% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.66% ( -0.16) | 88.34% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | San Lorenzo |
| 1-0 @ 19.1% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 13.63% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.79% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.01% Total : 57.74% | 0-0 @ 13.38% ( 0.19) 1-1 @ 11.15% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.23% Total : 27.08% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 15.18% |
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