SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 42.54%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (7.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.13%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newell's Old Boys would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Lanus |
42.54% ( 0.11) | 30.76% ( -0.02) | 26.7% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 38.09% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.16% ( 0.02) | 68.84% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.52% ( 0.02) | 86.48% ( -0.01) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.66% ( 0.08) | 32.34% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.15% ( 0.08) | 68.85% ( -0.08) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.3% ( -0.07) | 43.7% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.13% ( -0.06) | 79.87% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Lanus |
| 1-0 @ 15.95% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.16% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.81% Total : 42.53% | 0-0 @ 14.13% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 13.2% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.34% Total : 30.76% | 0-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.47% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.85% Total : 26.69% |
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