SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 50.08%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.65%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Sarmiento |
50.08% ( 0.3) | 29.81% ( -0.12) | 20.1% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 34.93% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 30.17% ( 0.17) | 69.82% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.87% ( 0.11) | 87.12% ( -0.11) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.24% ( 0.24) | 28.76% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.4% ( 0.3) | 64.6% ( -0.3) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.03% ( -0.1) | 50.97% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.68% ( -0.07) | 85.32% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 18.26% 2-0 @ 11.38% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.31% Total : 50.08% | 0-0 @ 14.65% ( -0.1) 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 2.59% ( 0)Other @ 0.25% Total : 29.8% | 0-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 20.1% |
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