SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (10.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
31.68% ( -0.16) | 27.93% ( -0.07) | 40.39% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 47.33% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.47% ( 0.19) | 58.53% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.9% ( 0.14) | 79.1% ( -0.14) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.09% ( -0.02) | 33.91% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.42% ( -0.02) | 70.58% ( 0.02) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.61% ( 0.22) | 28.39% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.86% ( 0.27) | 64.13% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
| 1-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 7.09% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.63% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 31.68% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.92% | 0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.74% Total : 40.38% |
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