Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 43.85%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 27.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
