SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Tigre | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 54.1%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 18.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.6%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Sarmiento |
54.1% ( -1.62) | 27.66% ( 0.64) | 18.24% ( 0.98) |
| Both teams to score 37.04% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.24% ( -0.82) | 65.76% ( 0.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.58% ( -0.57) | 84.42% ( 0.57) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.12% ( -1.09) | 24.88% ( 1.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.51% ( -1.54) | 59.49% ( 1.54) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.31% ( 0.73) | 50.69% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.87% ( 0.49) | 85.13% ( -0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 17.54% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 12.2% ( -0.41)2-1 @ 8.29% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.38)3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 1.97% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.95% Total : 54.09% | 0-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.37) 1-1 @ 11.92% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.31% Total : 27.65% | 0-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.79% Total : 18.24% |
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