SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 37.14%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
37.14% ( -0.1) | 28.03% ( 0.04) | 34.83% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 47.65% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.59% ( -0.14) | 58.41% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.99% ( -0.11) | 79.01% ( 0.11) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.77% ( -0.13) | 30.23% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.6% ( -0.16) | 66.4% ( 0.16) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.3% ( -0.03) | 31.7% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.89% ( -0.03) | 68.12% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.33% Total : 37.14% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.75% Total : 28.03% | 0-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.57% 0-2 @ 6.33% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.9% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.87% Total : 34.83% |
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