SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 66.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 10.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.08%) and 3-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.67%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Boca Juniors.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Sarmiento |
66.35% ( 0.13) | 23.21% ( -0.09) | 10.44% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 31.26% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.34% ( 0.2) | 63.66% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.06% ( 0.14) | 82.94% ( -0.14) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81% ( 0.12) | 19.01% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.44% ( 0.2) | 50.56% ( -0.2) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 38.6% ( 0.05) | 61.4% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 8.65% ( 0.02) | 91.35% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 19.37% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 16.08% 3-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.34% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 2% Total : 66.33% | 0-0 @ 11.67% ( -0.08) 1-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.21% | 0-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.31% 0-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.06% Total : 10.44% |
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