SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 30.64% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 2-1 (7.9%). The likeliest Atletico Tucuman win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
40.24% ( -0.07) | 29.12% ( 0.02) | 30.64% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 43.73% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.17% ( -0.05) | 62.83% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.65% ( -0.04) | 82.34% ( 0.04) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.41% ( -0.06) | 30.58% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.18% ( -0.08) | 66.82% ( 0.08) |
| Atletico Tucuman Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63% ( 0.01) | 36.99% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.22% ( 0) | 73.78% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
| 1-0 @ 13.4% 2-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.34% Total : 40.23% | 1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0)Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.11% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.2% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.3% ( -0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 30.64% |
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