SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 31.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.4%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Sarmiento |
45.39% ( -0.08) | 31.16% ( 0.03) | 23.46% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 35.25% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 28.84% ( -0.05) | 71.16% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.03% ( -0.03) | 87.97% ( 0.03) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.04% ( -0.07) | 31.96% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.59% ( -0.08) | 68.41% ( 0.08) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.8% ( 0.01) | 48.2% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.63% ( 0.01) | 83.37% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 17.57% 2-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 45.38% | 0-0 @ 15.4% ( 0.03) 1-1 @ 12.82% 2-2 @ 2.67% ( -0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 31.15% | 0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.68% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.1% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0)0-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 1.3% Total : 23.46% |
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