SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 42.74%. A draw had a probability of 31.4% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (7.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.1%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
42.74% ( -0.17) | 31.36% ( -0.01) | 25.9% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 36.4% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 29.36% ( 0.1) | 70.65% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.36% ( 0.07) | 87.64% ( -0.07) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.81% ( -0.04) | 33.2% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.2% ( -0.05) | 69.8% ( 0.05) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.48% ( 0.24) | 45.52% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.66% ( 0.18) | 81.34% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
| 1-0 @ 16.66% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 9.19% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 7.23% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.38% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.65% Total : 42.74% | 0-0 @ 15.1% ( -0.06) 1-1 @ 13.11% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 31.35% | 0-1 @ 11.89% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.59% Total : 25.9% |
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