Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 51.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 22.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union in this match.
