SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 44.74%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Union had a probability of 24.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.97%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Union |
44.74% ( -0.41) | 30.37% ( -0.07) | 24.88% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 37.85% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.46% ( 0.41) | 68.54% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.71% ( 0.27) | 86.29% ( -0.27) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( -0.02) | 30.93% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.77% ( -0.02) | 67.22% ( 0.02) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.8% ( 0.71) | 45.19% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.91% ( 0.56) | 81.09% ( -0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Union |
| 1-0 @ 16.4% ( -0.26) 2-0 @ 9.62% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.02% Total : 44.74% | 0-0 @ 13.97% ( -0.22) 1-1 @ 13.02% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.33% Total : 30.36% | 0-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.67% Total : 24.88% |
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