Preview

Data Analysis

 

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Arminia Bielefeld and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

In a round of 16 clash in the DFB-Pokal, third division side Arminia Bielefeld must overcome Bundesliga team Freiburg on Tuesday at SchucoArena.

The home team are third in the 3. Liga with 29 points after 16 matchweeks and beat Union Berlin 2-0 in the previous round on October 30, while Freiburg defeated Hamburger SV 2-1 on the same date and are sixth in the top flight with 20 points from 12 games.

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Match preview

Arminia Bielefeld will feel they can triumph on Tuesday given they have already eliminated Bundesliga team Union Berlin, and while the lower league side faced 21 shots, they still managed to create two big chances and restrict their opponents to just one.

The hosts beat Ingolstadt 1-0 on Friday in the 3. Liga thanks to a 76th-minute goal from Louis Oppie, and the result was the fifth time in the last six games that they have kept a clean sheet.

Boss Michel Kniat's side have scored 11 goals in their last nine games and are the third tier's joint 13th best offensive and best defensive side having netted 21 times and conceded on 13 occasions.

Arminia Bielefeld's form in recent weeks has been strong considering they have won eight of their past 12 games, and they have also achieved victory in six of their last seven home matches.

The hosts have not won three consecutive fixtures in the DFB-Pokal since 2016-17, and though they have won three of their four most recent cup outings at SchucoArena, they did lose the prior five at home.

Opponents Freiburg are just three points from third-placed Bayer Leverkusen and are on track to accumulate roughly 56 points, 14 more than they did last term.

The visitors beat Borussia Monchengladbach 3-1 on Saturday, and while stats such as xG might suggest that the match was a closely fought contest, Breisgau-Brasilianer created four big chances compared to Die Fohlen's one.

Julian Schuster's side dominated the first half against Hamburger SV in terms of chance creation but only mustered 43% possession against the 2. Bundesliga team, though the victors controlled the second half.

Freiburg have scored 16 times and conceded 16 goals in the top flight, and these are the Bundesliga's 12th-best offensive and joint fifth-best defensive records respectively.

Schuster's team are in mixed form, as while they have only lost once in their last four games, they have been beaten in two, drawn two and won two of their last six matches.

Breisgau-Brasilianer's form in the DFB-Pokal is strong considering they have won seven of their nine most recent fixtures in the competition, but it should be noted that they have lost two and drawn one of their past three away matches in all competitions.

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Team News

Arminia Bielefeld are likely to name a similar starting XI to the side that beat Union Berlin, so expect to see a back three of Maximilian Grosser, Stefano Russo and Leon Schneider in front of goalkeeper Jonas Thomas Kersken.

Sam Schreck and Mael Corboz could be chosen by Kniat in midfield behind a front three consisting of Lukas Kunze, Marius Worl and Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee.

As for Freiburg, they will be without midfielder Daniel-Kofi Kyereh and attacker Eren Dinkci.

The visitors are almost certain to make several changes to the team that beat Borussia Monchengladbach, with Florian Muller a probable candidate to come in for goalkeeper Noah Atubolu.

Elsewhere, Likas Kubler, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart and Christian Gunter may start in defence, while regular Maximilian Eggestein could be partnered by Nicolas Hofler in midfield.

Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Kersken; Grosser, Russo, Schneider; Lannert, Schreck, Corboz, Oppie; Kunze, Worl; Bazee

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Kubler, Ginter, Lienhart, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Doan, Holer, Grifo; Gregoritsch

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We say: Arminia Bielefeld 0-3 Freiburg

It is difficult to see Arminia Bielefeld progressing to the quarter-finals considering they face a team that sit two divisions above them.

Freiburg should be confident of winning given their opponents have not been the most prolific goalscorers in the third tier, and the visitors will no doubt be strong favourites on Tuesday.


For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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