Union Berlin are likely to make several changes in personnel for this match ahead of their league fixture against Bayern Munich over the weekend, and that may enable Arminia Bielefeld to find a goal in this one, though we feel it will not be enough to see them progress to the next round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arminia Bielefeld would win this match.
1.66) 
-0.39) 
