SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 54.47%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 22.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
54.47% ( 0.53) | 22.87% ( -0.11) | 22.66% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 55.99% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.08% ( 0) | 43.92% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.69% ( 0) | 66.31% ( -0) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.96% ( 0.18) | 16.04% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.6% ( 0.33) | 45.4% ( -0.33) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.68% ( -0.38) | 33.32% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.06% ( -0.41) | 69.93% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 6% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.48% Total : 54.47% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.34% 3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.86% | 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.32% Total : 22.66% |
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