SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.46%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 14.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.76%) and 1-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (4.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
67.46% ( 0.44) | 18.4% ( -0.06) | 14.14% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 54.87% ( -0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.56% ( -0.61) | 37.43% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.34% ( -0.66) | 59.65% ( 0.65) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.79% ( -0.06) | 10.21% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.5% ( -0.14) | 33.49% ( 0.13) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.11% ( -0.92) | 38.89% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.38% ( -0.88) | 75.62% ( 0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.24)3-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 4.24% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.89% Total : 67.45% | 1-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.4% | 1-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.86% Total : 14.14% |
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