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Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 19, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Yuanshen Sports Centre Stadium
IN

Hong Kong
0 - 1
Iran


Ming Wu (37'), Nunez (47')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ghaedi (24')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 4-1 Palestine
Sunday, January 14 at 5.30pm in Asian Cup

We said: Hong Kong 1-5 Iran

Hong Kong may feel a little hard done by in their opener, but on Friday, they could have their hands full against a determined Iranian side eager to book a spot in the knockout stage as quickly as possible. Iran seem to have found their scoring touch in 2024, netting 11 times in just three matches, and we expect them to bury the many chances they are likely to have against a passive Hong Kong side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Iran had a probability of 36.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Iran win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Hong KongDrawIran
36.63% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 27.29% (0.073 0.07) 36.08% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Both teams to score 49.99% (-0.22600000000001 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.47% (-0.282 -0.28)55.53% (0.283 0.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.3% (-0.23 -0.23)76.7% (0.23099999999999 0.23)
Hong Kong Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.87% (-0.149 -0.15)29.13% (0.15 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.94% (-0.183 -0.18)65.06% (0.18600000000001 0.19)
Iran Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.54% (-0.169 -0.17)29.46% (0.171 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.53% (-0.208 -0.21)65.46% (0.211 0.21)
Score Analysis
    Hong Kong 36.62%
    Iran 36.07%
    Draw 27.29%
Hong KongDrawIran
1-0 @ 10.58% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 7.98% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.53% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.28% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.01% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 36.62%
1-1 @ 12.93% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 8.58% (0.093 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 27.29%
0-1 @ 10.48% (0.06 0.06)
1-2 @ 7.9% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-2 @ 6.41% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.22% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.61% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 36.07%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: UAE 3-1 Hong Kong
Sunday, January 14 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 2-0 Hong Kong
Wednesday, January 10 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Hong Kong 1-2 Tajikistan
Thursday, January 4 at 12pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: China 1-2 Hong Kong
Monday, January 1 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Hong Kong 2-2 Turkmenistan
Tuesday, November 21 at 12pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Iran 4-0 Hong Kong
Thursday, November 16 at 2.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Iran 4-1 Palestine
Sunday, January 14 at 5.30pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Indonesia 0-5 Iran
Tuesday, January 9 at 3pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Iran 2-1 Burkina Faso
Friday, January 5 at 2.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Uzbekistan 2-2 Iran
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Iran 4-0 Hong Kong
Thursday, November 16 at 2.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Qatar 0-4 Iran
Tuesday, October 17 at 7pm in International Friendlies


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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