SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 25.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 0-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hong Kong | Draw | Tajikistan |
| 49.98% | 24.93% | 25.09% |
| Both teams to score 52.14% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.66% | 50.34% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.72% | 72.28% |
| Hong Kong Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.84% | 20.15% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.56% | 52.43% |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.3% | 34.69% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.58% | 71.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| Hong Kong | Draw | Tajikistan |
| 1-0 @ 11.19% 2-1 @ 9.5% 2-0 @ 8.97% 3-1 @ 5.07% 3-0 @ 4.79% 3-2 @ 2.68% 4-1 @ 2.03% 4-0 @ 1.92% 4-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.75% Total : 49.97% | 1-1 @ 11.85% 0-0 @ 6.99% 2-2 @ 5.03% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.92% | 0-1 @ 7.4% 1-2 @ 6.28% 0-2 @ 3.92% 1-3 @ 2.22% 2-3 @ 1.77% 0-3 @ 1.38% Other @ 2.12% Total : 25.09% |
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