SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 47.65%. A win for Jordan had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Jordan win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Iraq | Draw | Jordan |
47.65% ( -0.32) | 25.38% ( -0.06) | 26.96% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.18% ( 0.52) | 50.81% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.3% ( 0.46) | 72.7% ( -0.46) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.66% ( 0.07) | 21.34% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.7% ( 0.11) | 54.3% ( -0.12) |
| Jordan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.59% ( 0.59) | 33.41% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.97% ( 0.64) | 70.03% ( -0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iraq | Draw | Jordan |
| 1-0 @ 11.01% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 4.8% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.44% Total : 47.65% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.39% Total : 26.96% |
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