SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Honduras | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 37.02%. A win for Afghanistan had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Afghanistan win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Afghanistan |
37.02% ( 2.76) | 27.93% ( -0.65) | 35.05% ( -2.11) |
| Both teams to score 47.98% ( 1.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.99% ( 2.41) | 58.01% ( -2.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.3% ( 1.86) | 78.7% ( -1.86) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.89% ( 3) | 30.11% ( -3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.75% ( 3.45) | 66.25% ( -3.46) |
| Afghanistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.65% ( -0.12) | 31.35% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.29% ( -0.14) | 67.71% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Afghanistan |
| 1-0 @ 11.32% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.54)2-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.48)3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.45)3-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.39)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.2)Other @ 2.35% Total : 37.01% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.89)2-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.3)Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.93% | 0-1 @ 10.94% ( -1.09) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 6.35% ( -0.65)1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.96% Total : 35.04% |
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