SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Honduras | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 37.02%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.3%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Iraq win was 0-1 (12.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Iraq |
37.02% ( 0.21) | 30.05% ( 0.13) | 32.93% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 41.88% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.65% ( -0.43) | 65.35% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.87% ( -0.3) | 84.13% ( 0.3) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.13% ( -0.09) | 33.87% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.46% ( -0.1) | 70.54% ( 0.1) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.32% ( -0.48) | 36.68% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.54% ( -0.48) | 73.46% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Iraq |
| 1-0 @ 13.44% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.01% | 1-1 @ 13.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.42% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.47% Total : 30.05% | 0-1 @ 12.46% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.88% Total : 32.93% |
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