Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Brugge win with a probability of 50.5%. A win for Genk had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Brugge win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.22%) and 3-1 (6.17%). The likeliest Genk win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Brugge would win this match.
