Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 2-1 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
