Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 72.38%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Mechelen had a probability of 12.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 3-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.77%), while for a Mechelen win it was 1-2 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.
