Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 42.08%. A win for Cercle Brugge had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.29%). The likeliest Cercle Brugge win was 2-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
