SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 50.79%. A win for Dender had a probability of 25.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Dender win was 1-2 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Genk | Draw | Dender |
50.79% ( 0.07) | 23.58% ( 0.01) | 25.63% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 57.04% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.87% ( -0.12) | 44.13% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.49% ( -0.11) | 66.51% ( 0.12) |
| Genk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.56% ( -0.02) | 17.44% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.1% ( -0.03) | 47.9% ( 0.04) |
| Dender Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.09% ( -0.12) | 30.91% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.79% ( -0.14) | 67.21% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Genk | Draw | Dender |
| 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.62% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.81% Total : 50.79% | 1-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.58% | 1-2 @ 6.49% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.33% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 25.63% |
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