Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 51.75%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.75%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 0-1 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
