Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 49.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.28%) and 1-2 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Caracas win it was 1-0 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.12) 
