Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 56.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
1.02) 
-0.06) 
