Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 34.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
0.31) 
-0.07) 
